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Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos Analysis for Understanding Environmental, Epidemiological, and Social Systems in Bangladesh

Students & Supervisors

Student Authors
Md. Rifat Hossaine
Bachelor of Science in Electrical & Electronic Engineering, FE
Md. Yousuf
Bachelor of Science in Electrical & Electronic Engineering, FE
Supervisors
Md. Mortuza Ahmmed
Associate Professor, Faculty, FST

Abstract

Most of the environmental, epidemiological, and social processes exhibit high interdependence in Bangladesh, showing sudden, often nonlinear fluctuations. For example, dengue fever outbreaks, air-quality spikes, or rapid changes in population social behavior all are difficult to predict with conventional linear models. This work explores nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory through analysis, revealing hidden patterns and characterizing system sensitivities leading to long-term unpredictability. A secondary data from Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and Directorate General of Health Services (DGHS) of annual non-linear dynamics and chaos of Bangladesh for 1995–2024 was statistically analyzed to identify key-drivers of systemic instability. Multiple linear regression and correlation analysis was followed to assess linear associations and the relative explanatory power of environmental, epidemiological, and social predictors for the chaos index. Several graphical approaches were done to determine the behavior of the variables. The analysis of Bangladesh’s chaos of 1995–2024 dataset, a significant increase in all indicators is observed after 2010. The Social System Complexity Index displaying the largest decade to decade rise. In the same vein, correlation method represents the Social System Complexity Index as the strongest positive correlate (0.09) of the Chaos Index while environmental variability and epidemiological count shows moderate correlation. The regression analysis shows R^2=0.187, that means 18.7% variability of the variables with the chaos index. This represents the chaos is more non-linear and does not depend on any single factor over the years. Despite the environmental conditions and epidemiological factors, correlation and regression approaches suggest social factors as the leading factor for chaos in Bangladesh. Moreover, the findings support the non-linear behavior and the dependance of the multiple factors of the chaos index of Bangladesh. These findings support the importance of evidence-based planning for climate adaptation, public health preparedness, and sustainable social development.

Keywords

Nonlinear chaos index epidemiological index social system complexity environmental variability.

Publication Details

  • Type of Publication:
  • Conference Name: 1st International Conference on Multidisciplinary Research in Sciences (ICMRS-2026)
  • Date of Conference: 09/01/2026 - 09/01/2026
  • Venue: Comilla University, Cumilla-3506, Bangladesh.
  • Organizer: Faculty of Science , Comilla University
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