Predictive Analytics for Vector-Borne Disease Outbreaks: A Dengue Case Study in Bangladesh
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Student Authors
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Abstract
The vector-borne disease is caused by pathogens being transmitted into humans and animals through the bites of infected bugs. Dengue is one of them. Dengue fever is a serious challenge in Bangladesh for the past few decades, Dengue outbreaks in Bangladesh have been influenced by four key factors: rapid urbanization, inconsistent rainfall and rising mosquito density. National dengue data from 1995 to 2024 reveal that years with heavy rainfall and elevated mosquito indices such as 1996, 2002, 2018 and 2019 have recorded more dengue cases than other years. Quantitative analysis of these patterns can help in prevention of probabilities to identify the major climatic factors impacting dengue incidence in Bangladesh and to create a predictive model capable of estimating future outbreak risks. The study was conducted through researching the temperature, rainfall, mosquito index and dengue cases between 1995-2024. The data were analyzed using Microsoft Excel for completion and visualization. The overall patterns were summarized using descriptive statistics. The relationship between dengue cases and rainfall and temperature was determined using Excel sheet data and graph. Additionally, time series trend analysis and moving average were used to evaluate seasonal and long term variations. The results of research show an upward slope between rainfall and mosquito index with dengue cases, while temperature shows a downward slope in the graph. The analysis of Excel data and graphs reveals a strong ability to predict the intensity of dengue outbreaks. The primary indicators for these predictions are rainfall levels and the mosquito index. The research also demonstrates the effectiveness of using statistical modeling to forecast dengue outbreaks. By integrating climatic and environmental factors into a probability-based system, early warning systems can be improved. This allows health authorities in Bangladesh to take timely, data-driven preventive measures.
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Publication Details
- Type of Publication:
- Conference Name: Gazipur Agricultural University International Conference (GAUIC) 2025
- Date of Conference: 12/12/2025 - 12/12/2025
- Venue: Gazipur Agricultural University, Gazipur, Bangladesh
- Organizer: Gazipur Agricultural University